Is another wave of infrastructure investment about to rise? From market expectations, it seems so. Infrastructure companies and market analysis institutions believe that once the anticipated fiscal stimulus policies are implemented, as an important means to stabilize the economy, a batch of major projects, especially "railway and highway infrastructure," will be successively launched.

This judgment is not without basis. The Politburo meeting held on September 26 made arrangements for the issuance and use of ultra-long-term special national bonds and local government special bonds, advanced the issuance of 100 billion yuan in central budget investment and a list of 100 billion yuan "two heavy" construction projects, and decided to accelerate the issuance and use of local government special bonds, and study the expansion of support areas and the use as capital.

If infrastructure investment is to once again act as an "economic stabilizer," it is probably not surprising, although there is still much discussion about the direction of fiscal funds. Some scholars hope to allocate more funds to improve people's livelihoods rather than retrace the path of large infrastructure construction. In their view, the space for infrastructure investment in various places is not very large.

Even so, from the information released by multiple provinces across the country, major projects also show a trend of "pressure茬" promotion. Some provinces hold meetings intensively to deploy the packaging and reserve of key projects, striving for more shares and greater support; a series of large-scale projects are also rushing to start construction within the year, hoping to sprint the economic data of the fourth quarter. Anxious experts even suggest that with a sense of urgency, funds should be quickly invested to boost confidence.

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We understand that behind this sense of urgency is a worry about the continuous downward trend of the economy. Scholars and officials hope to use large-scale stimulus policies to reverse market expectations and thereby stabilize the economy. However, we believe that when it comes to investment stimulation, the more so at such times, the more we cannot lose our order, and we cannot bypass project demonstration procedures for the sake of speed, or even deliberately lower standards and thresholds.

The recently hotly discussed Wuhai Passenger Hub reminds us. This passenger hub, located in Wuhai City, Inner Mongolia, with a total investment of 215 million yuan, is planned to be a comprehensive building integrating passenger waiting, ticketing, security check, office, etc., but since its completion and delivery at the end of 2020, it has not played its designed purpose except for being temporarily transformed into a cabin during the epidemic.

The planning of this project began around 2012, the design scheme was approved in 2014, the main project was completed in 2018, and it was completed and delivered at the end of 2020. The current result is obviously not what was wanted when the decision was made.

In reality, it generally takes about seven to eight years or even ten years for a large infrastructure project to go from planning to completion. This requires us to deeply demonstrate factors such as the local economic volume, population increase, and industrial support, looking at the long term, so that the project can withstand the test of time and economic cycles. If this key link is lacking, today's bustling shoveling and filling of soil will not only dig a hole for future finances but also waste taxpayers' money.

Over the years, some places have built advanced passenger stations, high-speed rail stations that have not yet been put into use, and highways with sparse traffic... all of which remind us of such investment risks. Is it really worth exchanging such risks for good-looking economic data for a while?

Since the 1990s, in order to stimulate economic growth and drive private investment, local governments have had multiple rounds of large-scale investment in "railway and highway infrastructure." To be fair, most projects have greatly driven the development of related industries and cities with the improvement of transportation convenience and efficiency, but there are also many infrastructure projects that have become chicken ribs: the investment benefit is not high, the project is vacant for a long time or does not meet the design requirements, and is instead dragged down by huge operating costs, causing the misallocation and waste of fiscal funds.Since 2020, "new infrastructure" represented by 5G base station construction, ultra-high voltage, new energy vehicle charging piles, and large data centers has also joined the ranks of infrastructure investment, expanding the options for infrastructure investment. At the same time, with the profound changes in China's economic structure and environment, a considerable part of urban infrastructure is in a state of saturation, and some central and western cities are experiencing accelerated population outflow, with the utilization rate of infrastructure also decreasing. This reminds us that when planning and designing projects, we must conduct research and make estimates.

It is particularly important to note that some urban planning projects for subways, highways, and airports have been suspended and rejected during project approval because their return on investment could not cover the principal and interest of the debt. When the new wave of infrastructure investment comes, these projects with inherent deficiencies should not be allowed to take advantage of the opportunity to get back on track.

The correctness of government investment direction does not mean that the rationality and feasibility of the projects are endorsed. After all, improving infrastructure is to provide better public services, promote economic development, and not to inflate economic data.