Market Overview

On Friday, the two major US stock indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, opened high and closed low, with the S&P 500 rising by 1% in the early session. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones ended their six-week winning streak, while the Nasdaq Composite hit a new high during the session, rebounded for two days, and continued to rise for seven consecutive weeks. The Dow Jones and the Russell Small Cap Index fell by about 3% for the week. Nvidia's market capitalization briefly surpassed Apple's to become the largest, Tesla rose by more than 3%, and its weekly earnings increased by 22%. Capri fell by nearly 49%, setting a historical record for the largest drop.

On Friday, Chinese concept stocks shone, rising by more than 2% at one point. WeRide's US IPO rose by nearly 7% on its first day. Ji氪 rose by nearly 25%, and NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto all rose by more than 5%. Photovoltaic stocks soared across the board, with Daqo New Energy rising by more than 16%. The offshore yuan broke through 7.13 yuan at the beginning of the US stock market, then fell by hundreds of points, and fell by nearly 160 points for the week.

The 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar approached a three-month high. The US Treasury yield rose by nearly 16 basis points in a week. The US dollar has risen for four consecutive weeks, the longest consecutive weekly rise in eight months.

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Over the weekend, the yen broke through 152. Reports said that the US government is investigating the encrypted digital currency company Tether, and Bitcoin fell.

Commodities rose again. Several US Air Force F-16 fighter jets have arrived in the Middle East, and oil prices rose by more than 2%, with a weekly increase of more than 4%. Gold rose by nearly 1% for the week. European natural gas and palladium reached a new high for the year.

In the Asian session, the three major A-share indices all closed higher, with photovoltaic stocks leading the way, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose and then fell, closing up by 0.1%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index closed up by 1.2%.

News Highlights

Kweichow Moutai's Q3 net profit was 19.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.28%. Luxshare Precision's Q3 revenue increased by 27.1% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 21.9%. Will Semiconductor's Q3 revenue increased by 9.55% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 368.33% year-on-year. China Shenhua's Q3 revenue increased by 3.4% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 13.8% year-on-year. The stock price of Oriental Fortune has doubled, but the performance has not kept up, with both revenue and net profit declining in the third quarter report. Hikvision's Q3 revenue stagnated, and net profit fell by 13.4%.This week, the financial reports of US tech giants are coming in thick and fast, with five out of the seven giants in the Mag 7, including Google, Microsoft, and Apple, releasing their Q3 financial reports.

Media: Google is developing artificial intelligence that can control computers, and the next-generation Gemini 2.0 model, scheduled for release in December, will power it; OpenAI says there are no plans to release Orion this year.

Market Close

US Stocks: The Dow Jones fell 0.61%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.03%, with weekly cumulative declines of 2.68% and 0.96% respectively, while the Nasdaq rose 0.56%, with a weekly cumulative increase of 0.16%.

European Stocks: The European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.03%, with a weekly cumulative decline of 1.18%. The German DAX 30 index closed up 0.11%. The French CAC 40 index closed down 0.08%. The UK's FTSE 100 index closed down 0.25%, with weekly cumulative declines of 0.99%, 1.52%, and 1.31% respectively.

A-Shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.59%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.71%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.93%.

Bond Market: At the end of the bond market, the US ten-year benchmark Treasury yield was around 4.24%, up about 3 basis points during the day, with a weekly cumulative increase of about 16 basis points; the two-year US Treasury yield was around 4.10%, up about 2 basis points during the day, with a weekly cumulative increase of about 15 basis points.

Commodities: WTI December crude oil futures closed up 2.26%, at $71.78 per barrel, with a weekly cumulative increase of about 4.5%. Brent December crude oil futures closed up 2.24%, at $76.05 per barrel, with a weekly cumulative increase of about 4.1%. COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.2%, at $2,754.6 per ounce, with a weekly cumulative increase of 0.9%. COMEX December silver futures closed down 0.05%, at $33.779 per ounce, with a weekly cumulative increase of about 1.6%. For the week,伦镍 fell by more than 4%, and伦铝 rose by more than 2%.Breaking News Details

Global Highlights

A Surge of Earnings Reports from US Tech Giants This Week:

Among the seven major US tech stocks known as the Mag 7, five are set to release their Q3 earnings reports this week. Specifically, Alphabet, the parent company of Google, will announce its earnings after the US stock market closes on Tuesday, the 29th, Eastern Time. Microsoft and Meta will follow suit with their reports after the market closes on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon will release their earnings after the market closes on Thursday. Tech stocks need to break through valuation bottlenecks with their performance. The US stock market appears prosperous on the surface but hides the risk of polarization. The dense release of earnings reports from large tech stocks may exacerbate fluctuations in the US stock market.

The US stock market is too concentrated, and under the 50% red line, asset management institutions can only sell tech stocks. This year's US stock market has been unprecedentedly concentrated, with tech stocks such as Nvidia and Apple contributing about half of the index's gains. Funds like Fidelity and T. Rowe Price have been forced to sell tech stocks to comply with regulatory requirements that control the investment ratio of weight stocks in their portfolios to below 50%.

Before this week's key earnings reports, the third "sell" rating for Apple appeared on Wall Street. The exposure of Apple's "highly confidential" App test could boost the 15-year history of blood glucose monitoring device research.

Google plans to release the next-generation Gemini 2.0 model in December, and OpenAI says it has no plans to release Orion this year. Previous reports stated that OpenAI planned to launch the next-generation model "Orion" before December, with capabilities 100 times that of GPT-4. Orion will not be first released through ChatGPT, and it is uncertain whether it will ultimately be named GPT-5. Microsoft may deploy this model on Azure Cloud as early as November.

Media: Google is developing artificial intelligence that can control computers. The project, code-named "Project Jarvis," aims to take over users' browsers to help consumers complete various daily tasks such as collecting research, purchasing products, or booking flights. The next-generation flagship Gemini model that Google will release in December will power Jarvis.

Overseas MacroGaza ceasefire negotiations resume, Hamas official: Awaiting the outcome of the talks.

Tokyo's October inflation cools down, core CPI falls below 2% for the first time in five months. Tokyo's overall consumer price index in October rose by 1.8% year-on-year, slightly higher than the expected 1.7%. The core CPI for October, excluding fresh food, increased by 1.8% year-on-year, marking a deceleration for the second consecutive month. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda hinted that there will be no rate hike on October 30th, indicating there is time to consider the next policy steps. Wall Street expects the Bank of Japan to continue raising rates in December or January next year.

US durable goods orders decreased by 0.8% month-on-month in September, with August's data revised down to -0.8%, dragged down by a decrease in aircraft orders. Affected by a major strike of Boeing's mechanics, commercial aircraft orders in September fell by 22.7%, a further increase from the nearly 20% drop in the previous month.

The underlying logic of the US Treasury sell-off is hidden in the speech of the Dallas Fed President. Lorie Logan stated that the Treasury sell-off stems from market financing conditions tightening due to quantitative tightening, and the market needs to "tolerate normal, moderate, and temporary stress"; if the goal is to improve market liquidity through the Fed's repurchase clearing mechanism, the current effects are limited. Bank of America Merrill Lynch补充s Logan's speech by mentioning the "key point" that was missed: if the debt ceiling is touched again, the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance will decrease, which is a key signal to suppress the financing market and will affect the market's confidence in US Treasuries and other assets.

ECB's 10 top officials collectively stated: Inflation rate falls below target level, but substantial rate cuts should be approached with caution.

IMF warns: Europe lags behind the US, with technology stagnation and per capita income 20% lower, and the economic gap is set to widen further! The IMF stated that due to Europe's aging labor force, further decline in birth rates, coupled with low levels of corporate investment, insufficient cross-border activities, and productivity far below that of the US, Europe's average annual GDP growth rate is expected to drop to 1.45% by the end of the decade in 2029, while the US's average annual GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.29% during the same period.

The Central Bank of Russia unexpectedly raised interest rates by 200 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to a record high of 21%. Regarding the outlook for future monetary policy, the Central Bank of Russia's hawkish stance indicates an open attitude towards the prospect of further rate hikes at the next meeting in December.

Goldman Sachs: The surge in iron ore prices is too aggressive, be cautious of adjustments. From September 24th to October 7th, iron ore prices rose from $89 to $114 per ton. Goldman Sachs analysts stated that due to increased arrivals, Chinese port inventories are 40% higher than the same period last year, and a surge in Indian shipments and the resumption of Australian shipments will further increase inventories. To achieve a fundamental balance, iron ore prices need to fall below $90.

What determines the direction of chip stocks? How much more money will cloud giants invest, and who has TSMC's CoWoS packaging capacity been allocated to? The current market is focusing on the capital expenditures of cloud computing giants and the allocation of TSMC's CoWoS packaging capacity. Morgan Stanley believes that AMD seems to have reduced its CoWoS orders at TSMC for 2025, but this capacity was immediately taken over by Nvidia, with an expected demand share of 63% by 2025. Cloud computing capital expenditures, due to investments in GPU devices, are accelerating year-on-year and may reach a peak in the first half of 2025.

Morgan Stanley's new gold pricing model has a fitting degree of 0.94, aiming for $3,100 by early next year. Morgan Stanley stated that over the past five years, the influence of ETF holdings, central bank purchases, and futures market positions on gold prices has increased, and the regression model has introduced more high-frequency factors. The new model calculates that gold prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching $3,100 per ounce in the first quarter of next year.Overseas Companies

Is Masayoshi Son Further Inflating the Artificial Intelligence Bubble? Masayoshi Son may further exacerbate the trend of skyrocketing valuations and overheated hype in technology companies, leading the AI market towards unsustainable growth, especially in the early-stage generative AI market. Injecting a large amount of capital into this market could create a high-pressure environment, with companies rapidly burning through money in an attempt to achieve exponential growth.

The merger of two major American fashion brands to create a handbag giant is halted, with Capri's stock price plummeting nearly 49%, setting a record.

Tesla, which does not engage in price wars, is twice as expensive as Nvidia? Tesla's stock surges, with its valuation pushed to 83 times expected earnings. Tesla hopes the market will view it as an AI company, but if Tesla's valuation is on par with AI giant Nvidia's 41.8 times, it implies that its stock price should also be halved from the current level. Tesla's supply chain is "mixed," canceling the $25,000 more affordable model, but expecting an overall increase in car production of 20%-30% next year.

OpenAI scientists stun TED Conference: Letting AI models think for 20 seconds enhances performance by 100,000 times.

A year after acquiring Activision Blizzard, Microsoft's gaming business faces a crucial battle. Microsoft positions itself as a "disruptor," believing that the streaming revolution will extend from television and film to the gaming industry, with billions of avid fans. Analysts believe that "Call of Duty: Black Ops 6" could become a key factor in the success of Microsoft's XGP strategy.

Report: Boeing explores the sale of its Starliner and other space businesses.

European car manufacturers are struggling, with Mercedes-Benz's profits halved and Porsche's profits plummeting. Porsche's price reductions have had limited effect, with operating profits down 27% year-on-year from January to September. Mercedes-Benz had to increase discounts to attract customers and support dealers, coupled with declining sales, resulting in the company's net profit for the third quarter being cut in half.

How difficult is short selling in the US stock market? Tesla short sellers lost all the money they made this year in one day. According to a report by S3 Partners, short sellers suffered a market value loss of about $3.5 billion in this trend, not only wiping out the $1.7 billion in profits made so far this year but also resulting in a current paper loss of $1.8 billion.

NYSE officially announces: Plans to extend the trading hours of NYSE Arca to 22 hours a day. In recent years, interest in all-weather trading in the US market has been increasing, and the New York Stock Exchange's extension of trading hours is in line with this trend.The "cryptocurrency circle" could be welcoming a major investor? SEC documents reveal that Microsoft will consider whether to invest in Bitcoin in December. However, Microsoft's board of directors has expressed opposition to a potential vote in December, deeming it "unnecessary."