Following October 23rd, the A-share photovoltaic (PV) sector has once again experienced a significant surge.

On October 25th, the Wind Photovoltaic Index closed at 3188.47 points, up 6.95%. A wave of stock price limits hit the photovoltaic sector, with more than 20 PV stocks such as Daqo New Energy, Haiyou New Materials, GCL-Poly Energy, Shuangliang Energy Conservation, TCL Zhonghuan, Tongwei Co., Jinko Technology, Aikosolar, and Longi Green Energy reaching their price limits.

In recent trading sessions, the photovoltaic industry has continuously received multiple news items, involving discussions on industry competition self-discipline, changes in overseas tariff policies, fluctuations in industry chain prices, and a decline in the operating rates of major manufacturing segment companies.

Among these, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association organized a special symposium in Shanghai on October 14th to prevent "involution-style" vicious competition within the industry, which has been hotly debated in the industry for several days. According to the news released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association that evening, entrepreneurs and representatives fully communicated and exchanged views on "strengthening industry self-discipline, preventing 'involution-style' vicious competition, strengthening market survival of the fittest mechanism, and smoothing the exit channels for backward and inefficient production capacities" and reached a consensus on the healthy and sustainable development of the industry.

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On October 18th, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association published another article, after summarizing, counting, analyzing, and organizing, the association calculated the cost of photovoltaic modules in October 2024 for the entire industry and government regulatory departments to refer to, promoting the healthy development of the industry.

According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association's calculation, the current integrated enterprise N-type M10 double-glazed photovoltaic modules, without considering depreciation, and without tax for silicon materials, wafers, and cells, the final module production cost (including tax but excluding transportation and miscellaneous fees) is 0.68 yuan/W. After announcing this cost price, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated, "Bidding and winning below cost is suspected of being illegal."

In response to this, the price has also attracted positive feedback from some photovoltaic companies. On October 23rd, Kingpang Photovoltaic responded on the investor interaction platform, saying, "The China Photovoltaic Industry Association's action (note by the reporter: announcing the calculated cost price of photovoltaic modules) is conducive to maintaining the industry's ecology and fair competition order, strengthening industry self-discipline, and promoting the healthy development of the industry."

On October 23rd, the capital market also reported that next month, relevant departments will issue documents to restrict the capacity utilization rate of the main segments of the photovoltaic industry, which stimulated a significant increase in the photovoltaic sector. However, according to the reporter from 21st Century Economic Report, there is no news indicating that the relevant departments will issue the "rumored document" next month. But considering the recent industry chain price situation, companies are spontaneously reducing their operating rates, and the prices of the main manufacturing segments of the photovoltaic industry chain are generally stable.

According to the latest data disclosed by the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the Silicon Industry Branch), the price of polysilicon remained unchanged this week. Among them, the transaction price range for N-type rod-shaped silicon was maintained at 37,000-44,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan/ton; the transaction price range for P-type single-crystal dense material was maintained at 33,000-36,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,500 yuan/ton; the transaction price range for N-type granular silicon was maintained at 36,000-37,500 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 37,300 yuan/ton.

The Silicon Industry Branch pointed out that the contraction of downstream demand, the irrational decline in downstream silicon wafer prices, and the significant increase in silicon material costs caused by electricity price increases led to very few polysilicon transactions this week, and the signing pace of rod-shaped silicon orders also slowed down overall this month."Even though the vast majority of companies have reduced their operational rates and output, the scale of inventory backlog continues to grow, with the spot inventory of silicon materials on the supply side showing a continuous upward trend." Industry institution InfoLink Consulting predicts that in the mid-to-late fourth quarter, companies will still face the decision of whether to reduce production more significantly.

This week, the price of silicon wafers has fallen. Among them, the average transaction price of N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*183.75 mm /130μm/256mm) dropped to 1.05 yuan/piece, a decrease of 5.41%; the average transaction price of N-type G12R monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*210mm/130μm) dropped to 1.26 yuan/piece, a decrease of 1.59%; the average transaction price of N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210*210mm/150μm) dropped to 1.45 yuan/piece, a decrease of 3.33%.

Due to a significant decrease in downstream component demand, the silicon wafer segment is forced to reduce production, and the overall silicon wafer output has been compressed to nearly the limit. According to statistics from the Silicon Industry Association, it is estimated that the silicon wafer production in October will be adjusted to 45GW to 46GW, and it is expected that there will be a reduction of about 2GW in November.

"The silicon wafer market continues to face sales pressure, with buyers and sellers still in a game. Under the low demand at the end of the year, companies continue to face difficult shipping conditions." InfoLink Consulting stated.

This week, the average price of solar cells was basically the same as last week. According to data from InfoLink Consulting, the average prices of P-type M10 and G12 size solar cells were both the same as last week, at 0.28 yuan/W and 0.285 yuan/W, respectively; the average prices of all sizes of N-type solar cells were also the same as last week, with the M10 average price at 0.27 yuan/W, and the G12R and G12 size average prices at 0.28 yuan/W and 0.285 yuan/W, respectively.

InfoLink Consulting believes that due to the relaxation of silicon wafer prices and the accumulation of inventory, some solar cell manufacturers may reduce solar cell prices again in November. The market outlook for the fourth quarter is also pessimistic, but it is still necessary to observe the manufacturers' production strategies and price protection policies. In addition, with the optimization of production lines and continuous improvement in efficiency, the average storage efficiency of most manufacturers' solar cell mass production has now reached more than 25%.

Although the price of components has slightly decreased this week, the overall transaction price is concentrated, indicating that it has approached the bottom.

Data from InfoLink Consulting shows that the price range of PERC double-glazed components is about 0.65 yuan/W to 0.76 yuan/W, and there are signs of price inversion with new orders and TOPCon products, with the average price of TOPCon double-glazed components being 0.71 yuan/W.

It is reported that manufacturers are brewing an increase in the quotation of about 0.03 yuan/W. However, InfoLink Consulting also pointed out, "Whether the price can successfully implement the price increase still depends on the improvement of market demand and the manufacturer's strategy. Manufacturers do have a conscious adjustment of production in October and November, and there is a shortage in the supply of TOPCon mainstream wattage."