Last week, the international market was turbulent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest report, projecting a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for this and next year, with U.S. Treasury yields continuing to rise.

In terms of the market, the U.S. stock market showed a divided trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down 2.68% for the week, the NASDAQ Composite up 0.16%, and the S&P 500 down 0.96%. European stock markets also saw a decline across the board, with the UK's FTSE 100 down 1.31%, Germany's DAX 30 down 0.99%, and France's CAC 40 down 1.52%.

This week promises to be eventful, with the United States set to release key data such as third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), and non-farm payrolls. In the Eurozone, inflation and economic growth data will be closely monitored, and it is expected that the Bank of Japan will maintain interest rates unchanged, but the latest outlook may provide clues for interest rate hikes in its forecasts for inflation and growth. The earnings season is entering its peak, with results from Apple, Amazon, and other major tech stocks to be revealed. At the same time, developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East are also worth continuous attention.

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The U.S. non-farm payrolls may see a significant decline. Since the September interest rate meeting, U.S. economic indicators have performed well. Federal Reserve officials have warned that it is unlikely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in the short term. The economic outlook has shifted from a "hard landing" to a "soft landing," or even a "no landing." With less than two weeks until the next interest rate meeting, the impact of data may be increasingly significant. Institutions predict that the U.S. economy will grow at an annual rate of 3.0% in the third quarter, unchanged from the second quarter. It is worth mentioning that the GDPNow model of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank shows a 3.4% growth.

Recently released CPI and PCE inflation indicators have shown differences between headline and core readings. Although the overall PCE has dropped to 2.2%, the core PCE, which the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to in its decision-making, rose 2.7% year-on-year in August. Institutions believe that both are expected to remain unchanged or slightly decrease in September.

The October non-farm employment report is also under scrutiny. After a 254,000 increase in September, it is expected that the U.S. will drop to 140,000 in October. Considering temporary factors such as the recent two hurricanes and the Boeing strike, job opportunities will decrease. However, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings are expected to slightly slow down from 0.4% to 0.3%. Investors can gain more clues from the JOLTS September job openings data before the non-farm report, ADP October private employment figures, and weekly unemployment benefit claim numbers. Other indicators worth watching include the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for October, the Case-Shiller August Home Price Index, and the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October.

The U.S. Treasury Department will auction $69 billion in 2-year Treasury bonds and $70 billion in 5-year Treasury bonds on the 28th local time, and $44 billion in 7-year Treasury bonds on the 29th.

The earnings season is entering its peak, with results from star tech stocks such as Google, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon to be unveiled. In addition, earnings from AMD, Merck, Berkshire Hathaway, ExxonMobil, Eli Lilly, Caterpillar, McDonald's, and others are also worth paying attention to.

Crude Oil and GoldInternational oil prices have stabilized and rebounded, with lingering concerns about potential wider conflicts in the Middle East, while worries about demand prospects have limited the upside. The near-month WTI crude oil contract rose by 4.50% for the week, trading at $71.78 per barrel, while the near-month Brent crude oil contract increased by 4.09%, trading at $76.05 per barrel.

Alex Hodes, Director of Energy Market Strategy at StoneX, wrote that as investors continue to focus on how escalating conflicts in the Middle East and weak demand from consuming countries will affect the market, oil volatility has eased somewhat this week.

The prospect of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has put some pressure on oil prices, but a breakthrough in the short term remains elusive. There is a tense wait for the standoff between Israel and Iran, following public announcements that Israel has informed the United States that it will not target Iran's nuclear or energy facilities. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said in a report that after an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, the upside remains limited, "Although the oil bull market may not have reached its peak recently, risks tend to tilt upwards over the weekend due to the possibility of escalating conflicts in the Middle East. Therefore, selling oil below $70 per barrel does not seem safe."

International gold prices have risen for the third consecutive week, continuously setting new historical highs. The COMEX gold futures contract for delivery in January next year on the New York Commodity Exchange rose by 0.32% for the week, trading at $2,755.80 per ounce.

Bob Haberkorn, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures, a U.S. commodity futures broker, said that the fact of risks in the Middle East could trigger some safe-haven buying into the weekend.

Despite the rise of the U.S. dollar, gold has still rebounded. Capital Economics said in a report: "People can reasonably argue that gold prices can rise further from here. But we want to emphasize that gold is not a one-way bet."

Focus on the UK government budget

Last week, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the ECB will continue to lower key interest rates at future meetings. At the same time, Lagarde refused to rule out the possibility of taking more significant measures at future meetings. "The direction of travel is clear, the speed is to be determined," Lagarde said, adding that although the moves since June have been sensible, it does not mean that the central bank will definitely continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

The eurozone's annual inflation rate fell to 1.7% in September, and the bank expects inflation to decline and remain at the 2% target level by 2025. However, Lagarde said policymakers should not be complacent. "We must be cautious and not jump to conclusions."

This week, the eurozone's third-quarter GDP and October inflation preliminary values will be closely watched and may strengthen or weaken the ECB's rationale for cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in December. Analysts at Danske Bank said that measuring the momentum of service prices in the inflation data after a clear slowdown in September will be key, "We suspect that (the decline in September) was mainly a flash in the pan, and we expect the momentum of service prices to rise again."Bank of England Governor Bailey said last week that the UK's disinflation process is happening faster than officials expected, which could be the latest hint that the central bank will continue to cut interest rates next month. Bailey stated that inflation is lower than he anticipated a year ago, highlighting the "good situation" where second-round effects could keep price pressures elevated. Bailey recently hinted that if the good news on inflation continues, the central bank might be "more aggressive" in cutting interest rates. His latest remarks could further solidify bets on the Bank of England shifting to a faster interest rate cut cycle in the coming months. Interest rate futures markets indicate that the Bank of England will cut rates next month, with a 60% chance of another 25 basis point cut in December.

This week, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves announced the unveiling of the first budget of the new Labour government. It is expected that Reeves will announce a £40 billion tax increase, raising the tax burden to its highest level since 1948. While this may not be good news for taxpayers, policymakers at the Bank of England might welcome it, as tighter fiscal policy will suppress economic demand and pave the way for faster interest rate cuts.